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Consumer confidence is an important economic barometer of current and future economic activity. We have recently seen higher interest rates hit Australian confidence, resource tax fallout is adding to the jitters. Australia is particularly relevant as in a world stung by the global financial crisis it has been a standout. Australia at the start of the crisis had a large budget surplus and the massive stimulus by China saw Australian commodities being bought at a record pace. However a series of ill-informed moves by the Australian Government has led to Australian consumer confidence being rattled.

Firstly the Rudd government used the surplus to write stimulus checks to the people. This only helped fuel the property bubble. Australia unlike Europe and America has not seen a burst in its property market. At least it hasn’t burst yet. Thus higher interest rates are a very important impact on consumers. As a result of this overheating property market the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates to slow down the inflationary affects. This coupled with a series of political crisis has hit Australian consumer sentiment. The proposed resource tax fallout is the latest move by the Australian government that has hurt consumer confidence.]]> billyaustindillon@nospam.com (billyaustindill) Tue, 08 Jun 2010 07:58:01 -0700 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34772.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34706.12
Following a year in which almost every economy in central and Eastern Europe contracted, with growth in worst-off Latvia falling by almost a fifth, policymakers are now guardedly optimistic in the light of improvements in some data from big developed states.

European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny told an economic conference that while many policymakers had taken a pessimistic view of the region at the height of the economic crisis last year, that outlook had changed.

'The way we see it now ... is that indeed also already in 2010, many of the countries in central and Eastern Europe will have higher growth rates than in Western Europe,' he said.

Poland, the only European Union member to avoid shrinking during the crisis, is expected to lead the way out with growth of more than 2 percent, while Romania should rebound from a steep 7 percent contraction.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Wed, 20 Jan 2010 05:36:19 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34706.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34681.12
Asked if he agreed that rates would definitely be higher at the end of the year, Rzonca told radio PiN in an interview:

'I think it's very probable... It's better to make smaller changes more often than rare jumps.'

Poland's main interest rate stands at an all-time low of 3.5 percent and analysts expect no moves in the first half of 2010. But some say consumer prices may pick up as the economy rebounds. Poland's 2010 economic growth is seen at 2.6 percent.

The Polish central bank targets inflation at 2.5 percent. It stood at 3.5 percent year-on-year in December and was within the target's upper band of 3.5 percent.

Rzonca reiterated that he believed inflation would ease to the target and possibly dip below it during the first six months of the year but that swifter rate hikes would be needed if that did not happen.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Mon, 18 Jan 2010 00:37:15 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34681.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34640.12 The forint hit multi-month highs against the euro earlier this week, and bond yields also dropped near recent lows.

Hungary's central bank needs to cut interest rates further cautiously, without risking a significant forint weakening which would hit foreign currency loan holders, Deputy Governor Ferenc Karvalits said on Saturday.

'The current strategy of monetary policy is to cut the base rate to the lowest possible level in a predictable, considered easing cycle,' he wrote in an article in daily Nepszabadsag.

'At the same time that cannot worsen the country's risk assessment, it should preserve confidence in forint investments and minimize the risks of foreign currency loan holders and the banking system,' Karvalits wrote. Karvalits comments echoed those made in a Reuters interview on Friday.

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) has lowered the key interest rates by a total of 325 basis points in six consecutive steps by December, hitting its lowest since 2006 at 6.25 percent. Analysts expect the bank to cut a further 25 basis points at its next meeting on Jan. 25, and continue easing to a level of 5.5 percent at the end of 2010.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Sat, 16 Jan 2010 05:13:35 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34640.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34609.12
'I am confident that as soon as this normally shaky electoral period will be over, it will be possible to resume a normal relationship,' he told a news conference.

Strauss-Kahn said Ukraine's $16.4 billion IMF program had been successful until three months ago when political constraints arose in the run-up to the presidential vote.

'The situation is quiet even if there is some pressure on the economy,' he said, adding that the views among the candidates on the future of Ukraine's IMF program were converging and quite similar.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Thu, 14 Jan 2010 14:53:28 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34609.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34598.12
The Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Thursday it expected some 1.5 million cars to be sold in Russia in 2010, almost unchanged from 1.47 million in 2009, which was a 49 percent decline from 2008.

Russia was on its way to overtaking Germany as Europe's biggest car market before the rouble devaluation effectively closed access to cheap credit for most ordinary Russians in late 2008, leading to a slump in car sales.

By contrast, car sales in Germany, Europe's largest car market, rose to 3.8 million in 2009 from 3.1 million in 2008 thanks to the government scrapping scheme.

In 2010, new car sales in Germany are expected to drop by a quarter to between 2.75 and 3.0 million after government subsidies to scrap old autos and buy new ones have run out .

Like many European countries and the United States, Russia had offered motorists incentives to buy new cars as a way to counter falling demand. But experts, including AEB, have repeatedly said Russian measures were too small to offset the decline.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Thu, 14 Jan 2010 03:08:20 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34598.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34553.12
It was the fourtheenth monthly decline in a row and evidence of a continued second wave of the economic crisis, which has been underscored by rising unemployment, stagnant wages and a fall in household spending.

- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.

- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars fell by a real 2.9 percent month-on-month, while dropping 6.1 percent year-on-year in November.

- Unadjusted car sales and maintenance fell by a real 11 percent year-on-year, pulling down the overall figures.

- Unadjusted retail sales excluding cars sales and repair dropped by 2.3 percent year-on-year.

]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:22:59 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34553.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34551.12
Analysts say the annual pickup in industry in emerging European Union states is more due to a very low comparative base from the last months of 2008, when industry collapsed at the height of the economic crisis, rather than a big pickup in demand from emerging Europe's main export market, the euro zone.

The month-on-month rise was the third in a row and is evidence of a period of rising new orders, partially due to
firms in western European countries restocking inventories.

Analysts say Romania's economy may have returned to quarter-on-quarter growth in the last quarter of 2009.

Romania's economic recovery was delayed by a three-month political crisis last year, which froze a 20 billion euro aid
package led by the International Monetary Fund and complicated the country's efforts to finance its budget deficit.

But the likely approval of a 2010 austerity budget, expected later this week, is seen bringing the deal back on track.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:11:48 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34551.12 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34448.12
Hungary became the first European Union member to seek international aid during the financial crisis in 2008 but due to tough budget cuts the government cut the cash-flow deficit to 3.6 percent of the economy last year, below expectations.

'If we remain on this path, if we can maintain this small deficit, then we could be the first in the region among countries that do not yet have the euro -- Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary -- to adopt it,' Bajnai told public television channel m1 in an interview.

'If we remain on this path, we will be able to adopt the euro in the next four years,' he said.

The country has missed several euro entry dates in the past and currently meets none of the criteria needed to adopt the single currency. Markets expect Hungary to join the euro in 2014.

A general election is due in April, where the main opposition Fidesz party looks well-positioned to score a landslide victory over the unpopular ruling Socialists.]]> melanie@nospam.com (traders) Sun, 10 Jan 2010 14:38:42 -0800 http://www.traderscommunity.com/news.php?item.34448.12