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| PMI early release to subscribers | ||
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Moderators: traders, Design Pro, Jenn, billyaustindill
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| Author | Post | |||
| Dee Dee |
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  Registered Member #355 Joined: Mon Oct 20 2003, 03:06PMLocation: Queens, NY Posts: 1175 | PMI is released earlier to it's subscribers ahead of the general market - hence the notorious spikes for this release. However it is never that simple ! Last week the attempt at releasing the number to only subscribers with a 3 minute lead time ahead of a general release backfired. There was a rumor of the 68.5 print a good 5 minutes or so before release but was quickly disregarded. In fact it appears that the bobble happened when the PMI sent out a test message with the number by accident earlier. The big event next month will be wether thay get it right this time! Hey Ho Let's Go! | |||
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| Aimee |
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  Registered Member #145 Joined: Sun Apr 20 2003, 03:52PMLocation: Bakersfield, USA Posts: 252 | "Dee Dee" wrote ... PMI is released earlier to it's subscribers ahead of the general market - hence the notorious spikes for this release. However it is never that simple ! Last week the attempt at releasing the number to only subscribers with a 3 minute lead time ahead of a general release backfired. There was a rumor of the 68.5 print a good 5 minutes or so before release but was quickly disregarded. In fact it appears that the bobble happened when the PMI sent out a test message with the number by accident earlier. The big event next month will be wether thay get it right this time! The PMI report is released to "non-press" subscribers 3 minutes in advance of the 10 ET general release. Shouldn't be hard but they routinely get it wrong. The currency market usually show the first signs of what's what. Aimee | |||
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| Figure Bid |
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 Registered Member #415 Joined: Tue Jun 01 2004, 02:12PMLocation: London, UK Posts: 856 | "Aimee" wrote ... 105db16006="Dee Dee" wrote ... PMI is released earlier to it's subscribers ahead of the general market - hence the notorious spikes for this release. However it is never that simple ! Last week the attempt at releasing the number to only subscribers with a 3 minute lead time ahead of a general release backfired. There was a rumor of the 68.5 print a good 5 minutes or so before release but was quickly disregarded. In fact it appears that the bobble happened when the PMI sent out a test message with the number by accident earlier. The big event next month will be wether thay get it right this time! The PMI report is released to "non-press" subscribers 3 minutes in advance of the 10 ET general release. Shouldn't be hard but they routinely get it wrong. The currency market usually show the first signs of what's what. Need to look into subscribing to this - anyone know how? Figure Bid ....lookin' for the offer John........... | |||
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| OGG |
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 Registered Member #405 Joined: Thu Apr 15 2004, 07:45AMPosts: 490 | CNBC did report that Delos Smith from the Conference Board has been put on administrative leave after an inquiry into irregularities about the embargo on the Conference Board's release of its monthly consumer confidence. The link to the press release is not yet out so it is too soon to say for sure which employee was put on leave, and the name of the employee does not appear to be noted. I can personally attest that at my prior business over two-years ago that they outright refused to allow me to be in the embargo-number group, and I didn't even have a trading account and it was for news-related purposes. I didn't realize that they may have had their hand out, but compensation and payment has actually not been alleged (but you know what the media reports and papers will most likely report on tomorrow). Now it looks like the Board itself is in hot water. If he was or was not selling that number for some to get an advantage it is slimy as can be, and hopefully this is not the case. If so, then it is of little wonder why economic numbers are ceasing to have any huge market impacts for the last two months. The Conference Board itself is maintaining that this is over the release or distribution of the data, not an inquiry to the validity ot methodology of the data. Jon C. Ogg | |||
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| Spin Doctor |
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  Registered Member #395 Joined: Thu Feb 12 2004, 08:00AMLocation: Washington DC, USA Posts: 1898 | The August reading on the Chicago PMI was far weaker than anticipated at 49.2 vs. a consensus forecast of 61.9. It was the first sub-50 reading in 28 months. The release sets a weak tone for Thursday"s August ISM release though other regions saw better activity (i.e. Empire, Philly Fed). The bond market is rising on the news with the curve steeper. The August Chicago PMI report noted significantly softer new orders and production along with a slight bump to factory payrolls. The production index read 56.2 in August vs. 70.5 in July. It was the weakest reading on this index since May (56.0). The new orders index tumbled to 46.5 from 69.6. It was the first time this index had fallen below the 50-mark since April 2003 and the 23.1 points drop was said to be the largest on record. IFR is not a subscriber to the Chicago PMI report so it"s difficult to ascertain what is behind the drop in new orders. We do know that 35% saw fewer orders in August, up sharply from 16% in July. Order backlogs fell as the index dropped to 45.7 from 56.1. Recall that readings below 50.0 on any of the index indicate slower activity. The inventories index rose to 60.3 from 56.4 suggesting manufacturers were expecting further growth in activity. The employment index posted at 51.7 vs. 56.1, suggesting a modest pick up at best in factory payrolls in the region. Expectations are for factory payrolls to be trimmed again in August. The prices paid index rose to 62.9 from 61.3 as oil prices climbed higher. It remains below its levels of the first quarter however. The pullback in the Chicago PMI index has to be taken in context with the fact that auto production rebounded in the face of stronger sales. It does suggest an improved tone for the national ISM though. Forecasts call for a reading of 58.0, up from 56.6 in July. Aug-05 Jul-05 Jun-05 May-05 Apr-05 Mar-05 Business Barometer 49.2 63.5 53.6 54.1 65.6 69.2 Production 56.2 70.5 57.8 56.0 68.9 75.8 New Orders 46.5 69.6 56.5 57.9 71.0 76.7 Order Backlog 45.7 56.1 45.3 44.4 52.4 55.6 Inventories 60.3 56.4 50.9 51.2 53.6 47.3 Employment 51.7 56.1 48.9 54.7 62.3 66.0 Supplier Deliveries 48.7 49.6 48.5 51.7 59.5 51.3 Prices Paid 62.9 61.3 59.7 54.3 66.1 68.2 What spin will we take today? | |||
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